Like scientists, we may marvel at the very existence of the universe, why there is something rather than nothing, and what it means that we are conscious of it. We might also wonder at the future of this existence: our personal destiny, that of our planet, and the whole she-bang.
There are theories of the far future of the universe. And current understanding enables us to foresee that the earth will eventually be uninhabitable, if only when the sun is in its death throes in 5 billion years. The fate of global civilization, even in a hundred years, is far more uncertain. The human situation seems inherently unstable, owing to our divided nature. We are the self-conscious creature with a foot in each of two worlds: our biological nature as primates and our ideals as world-makers outside nature. This unresolved inner contradiction is even more fundamental than our tribal divisiveness.
Self-conscious intelligence sets us aside from most of the animal kingdom. As a species, we are able to deliberately affect an entire planet in unchecked ways that other creatures presently cannot. Plants and microbes had early transformed the rocky and watery Earth into a living, self-regulating biosphere, with animal life as a refinement. A key feature of the biological world is its checks and balances, so that the coming and going of diverse life forms are but footnotes to the overall persistence of Gaia.
We too are a product of that system, but one that has conceived the possibility to step outside or beyond it. While there may be no teleology in natural evolution, human beings have ideas about where it should all go. These range from religious fantasies of afterlife to post-humanist dreams of disembodied cyberlife and a cosmic manifest destiny. “Intelligence,” if not spirit, might appropriate the entire universe. We have ideas about how things could be or should be in contrast to how they actually are. These are not just passive preferences (which other creatures may also have), but intentional directives. The subversive human goal, all along, has been to create parallel worlds outside nature, following visions shaped by diverse, often parochial tastes.
This is a paradoxical situation. For, the values that inform such visions are grounded in the biology they seek to transcend. We are primates who aspire to be gods. It is no wonder that history vacillates between tribal war and global cooperation, since our species is by inheritance at once cooperative, competitive, and xenophobic. Our creative imagination breeds diversity while yearning for unity. Hence, a plethora of divisive religious and political cults, on the one hand, and unifying international law and economic globalism on the other. In the context of such unresolved antitheses, history is compelled to move in cycles. But is there—can there be—overall progress? We are the only creature on this planet that can ask such questions or define such progress. And only humans are potentially in a position to direct planetary evolution.
An obstacle, of course, is the very multiplicity of conflicting visions. Change does happen, perhaps irreversibly, but is it progress? The current obsession with generative AI, for example, is transforming the noosphere, but does it follow some collective human will or simply the profit motive of dominating corporations and greedy consumers? Governments defensively adapt to these changes, with safety concerns, but to what extent do they pro-actively plan for the risky development of Artificial General Intelligence?
While no one is in charge of global long-term planning on behalf of the whole human community, there are individuals and vested interests who would assume that role for their private purposes. Human societies have from the outset been dominated by strongmen, and by elites who first established themselves through violent force. But in any contest of wills, the dominant must arrive at some at least unspoken contract with the dominated. Hence, feudal arrangements included obligations of the warrior nobility toward their peasant farmers—and vice-versa. Today, dominant corporations, and the individuals behind them, provide enough consumer benefits and propaganda to keep the masses enthusiastic about capitalism.
The underlying and overriding fact of history is that the powerful have always been skilled at maintaining their dominance. They have the means and intention to do so. The dominated, on the other hand, have little interest in power and mostly intend to get on with their lives as best they can. Ordinary people are not world creators or destroyers, just folk who want ordinary satisfactions, such as family and a stable job. This puts them at a great disadvantage in any struggle for social justice and economic equality. The rich have the freedoms money can buy while the poor struggle to survive. Those in between are reluctant to bite the hands that seem to feed them. Inadvertently they nourish those who, vampire-like, cleverly feed off of them.
Occasionally the elite screw up through excessive greed, breaking their tacit contract to manage society, risking rebellion by those who have too little left to lose. But those are glitches in an overall success at maintaining power from age to age, often literally passed down through inheritance. With the benefit of accumulating experience, ever refining the strategies of dominance, above all the powerful have the benefit of law, which institutionalizes their interests. The reign of law makes life possible for the masses. But it also makes it unfair, and sometimes miserable, for ordinary people when the dice are loaded and rules of the game are stacked against them.
Many people nevertheless heroically try to do good, in whatever ways they can. They are not motivated by the elite’s lure for power and wealth, nor by the consumer’s greed for more personal satisfactions. They may be organized on local scales, through NGOs, churches, charities, or action groups. But their individual and collective actions are random compared to the focused efforts of the powerful, who employ lobbyists, bribes, and the media they control to influence governmental decisions and popular opinion. Even the collective wealth of some nations—with millions of citizens—is outweighed by the disproportionate wealth of some individuals. Though guided by consumer data, what magically appears in the marketplace is decided in corporate boardrooms, not in public forums. It literally defines the world we live in. In this imbalance of power, consumerism is more than a covetous attitude toward material goods and convenient services; it fosters a relation of passive acceptance of whatever the powers that be dish out.
Can the distributed, nearly random exercise of good will by the many prevail over the concerted efforts of a powerful few? History so far says no, though there has always been a compromise among interests: the symbiosis we call civilization. AI may upset that balance in favor of the elite. People have heretofore been able bargain on the basis of their labour. Work is traditionally how we justify our slice of the economic pie. If all work, even intellectual and creative, is eventually automated—done by machines—people will be superfluous as producers. Even their role as consumer will be threatened, since the purpose of production (from the corporate standpoint) is to generate profit from mass consumption. If the things the wealthy desire can be generated directly by machines, they won’t need your hard-earned money to be able to acquire them, any more than they will need your labour to produce them. And they will already have secured your political vote, since they will have pre-defined the options and influenced your choices.
There is a conspiracy, if not what you think. We are the collaborators! Far from focusing on the dynamics of power, rumours of secret cabals serve to distract attention from the complicity of ordinary people in their own subservience. Do we not crave strong leadership, because only then can we be free to pursue the conventional goals of life, like children free to play because their parents shield them from adult realities? We do no more than follow what is given in biology. But also given in that biology is the drive of the aggressive to dominate the herd. We collaborate with our would-be masters in a conspiracy of the haves with the have-less. From this timeless arrangement, the fate of the world will emerge.